DOW-UAP-D151, AAWSAP DIRD, Cognitive Limits on Simultaneous Control of Multiple Unmanned Spacecraft, December 2010
This document is a Defense Intelligence Reference Document (DIRD), a technical reference format used by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to capture baseline knowledge on a specific topic for later analytic use. DIRDs are best understood as reference and synthesis products rather than as original research. It is one of 38 DIRDs produced under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program (AAWSAP) between 2009 and 2011. Because AAWSAP’s scope permitted a broad range of supporting topics, not every DIRD in the series directly concerns aerospace systems or future threat assessment. The following summary reflects the DIRD’s scope and framing at the time of writing and should not be read as implying current validation of the concepts discussed. This DIRD examines how many unmanned spacecraft a single human operator could realistically supervise or control at once, using research from air traffic control and multi-vehicle remote piloting as rough analogs. The report argues that the practical limit depends heavily on task complexity: about 16 craft for simple monitoring or destination assignment, about 7 for moderately complex piloting or mission tasks, and about 4 for complex heterogeneous operations. It places particular emphasis on the operator’s ability to maintain a coherent mental “big picture” of multiple vehicles at once, and it suggests that automation and external displays can help by offloading working-memory demands, though not eliminating them. The document also highlights physiological workload measures as a possible way to detect or predict operator overload in real time. Overall, it presents multi-spacecraft control as a human-factors and systems-integration problem in which progress depends on managing cognitive limits through interface design, automation, and workload monitoring.
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Cognitive Limits on Simultaneous Control of Multiple Unmanned Spacecraft The Defense Intelligence Reference Document provides non-substantive but authoritative reference information related to intelli ence to ics or methodolo ies. Prepared by: Technology Warning Division (DW0-4) Defense Warning Office Directorate for Analysis Defense Intelligence Agency AAP Person 73 COPYRIGHT WARNING: Further dissemination of the photographs in this publication is not authorized. This product is one of a series of advanced technology reports produced in FY 2010 under the Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Warning Office's Advanced Aerospace Weapons System Applications (AAWSA) P~ra!i o:auestions pertaining to this document should be addressed to jAAP Person 1 ~ AAWSA Program
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Chapter 2: Measurement of Mental Workload ........................................................ 3 Performance Measures....................................................................................... 4 Ocular Measurements..................................................................................... 6 Serum Levels of Hormones............................................................................. 7 Chapter 3: Studies in Cognitive Workload for Air Traffic Controllers ..................... 8 Modeling the Air Traffic Control Task ............................................................... 15 Chapter 4: Studies in Command of Multiple Semi-Automated Vehicles ................ 18 Figure 1. One-dimensional Representation of Changes in Performance as Workload Figure 2. Typical EKG Signal for a Normal Heartbeat.............................................. 5 Figure 4. Representation of Performance Results from Brookings Study.............. 13 Figure 5. Information Processing Model for a Human Operator............................ 16 Figure 6. Examples of Unmanned Military Vehicles .............................................. 19 Table 1. Variables used in Determining Complexity of the Traffic.................. 11 Table 2. Correlations among Physiological Variables ..................................... 14
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Cognitive Limits on Simultaneous Control of Multiple Unmanned Spacecraft Space exploration 40 years into the future may include manned missions to parts of the outer solar system. A possible scenario may include sending a small fleet of craft with different primary missions. For example, a trailing spacecraft of nuclear powered electromagnets designed to shield the manned part of the fleet from solar radiation; halo spacecraft with powerful radars to scout for incoming objects; exploration and mining craft, etc. The fleet could regularly travel out of unaided visual range of each other, joining up when necessary for maintenance, exchange of materials such as fuel, or other necessities. Piloting these multiple craft could be economically accomplished if only one remote pilot on station at a time was necessary. The cognitive limitation of a human astronaut and his ability to perform the multiple vehicle piloting task is the focus of this paper as little work has been done in this specific area. However, a large body of cognitive research on the limitations of object supervision and tracking for the task of air traffic control (ATC) exists. Additionally, there is an emerging body of research concerned with multiple unmanned vehicle piloting for heterogeneous missions. These are the two areas reviewed in detail as they relate to possible spacecraft missions. Pilots develop an internal mental representation of the identity, position, mission, and current direction of relevant objects. This is referred to colloquially as "the big picture." The primary research question we seek to answer is whether there is a cognitive limit to the number of objects that can be monitored and tracked within the big picture. Secondarily, we seek to find whether this maximum number is limited by the complexity of interaction; how those limiting factors are described, whether there is a real-time objective measure that indicates when a pilot is approaching his maximum capacity, and whether that capacity has been exceeded. The maximum number of tracked objects is highly dependent on the complexity of the piloting and mission tasks at hand. Research is lacking in the area of cognitive limits on the number of spacecraft one pilot could control given any mission scenario. Currently, two models are being used to examine similar activities in air traffic control and remote piloting of multiple unmanned vehicles. In both areas it has been shown the cognitive limits on the number of craft capable of simultaneous control is 16 for simple destination selection, 7 for moderately complex piloting and/or mission task completion, and 4 for complex heterogeneous craft. While additional future research may help to increase the automation component of aircraft and mission control, no current evidence exists to show that a complete mental picture can be maintained for more than about 16 objects at one time, even with external working memory augmentation. However, it has also been demonstrated that physiological variables can be objectively employed to indicate overload. Nominal success has been achieved in classifying physiological states near high workload thus enabling both prediction and possibly prevention of overload.
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Chapter 1: Introduction Due to the complexity, duration and numerous support requirements of future manned deep-space missions involving exploration, mineral exploitation, and possible colonization, a likely scenario will be the inclusion of unmanned fleets of support craft. Coupled with other requirements, an intensive research program is needed to investigate the cognitive limits on pilots and other operators responsible for the simultaneous control of multiple unmanned spacecraft making up the support fleet; a "fleet' approach is proposed in an effort to optimize safety and exploratory reach. This research effort would also aim at maximizing the functional efficiency of the mission and reducing the operation costs of unmanned vehicle fleets. In this scenario there is much about the ancillary craft that are automated in both navigation and mission. Many of them will not require full-time piloting but given that they could be hundreds of miles from each other at any instant of time, they need monitoring to prevent unseen system failure or collision from letting them just disappear one day during the mission like a Martian probe. Accomplishing this monitoring task and the occasional piloting task for multiple craft in the fleet could be economically accomplished if only one remote pilot on station at a time was necessary. We will focus here on the cognitive limitation of a human astronaut to perform the multiple-vehicle piloting task. It is not a surprise that there is little work in this specific area - in fact there were zero peer-reviewed articles in the major journals concerning remote piloting of multiple spacecraft (published in the last 30 years). There is
Where this file fits in the PURSUE archive
This file is one of DoD's 282 files in the Trump PURSUE disclosure. Within the DoD agency block it ranks #267 of 282 by Anomalousness Index. Across the entire 478-file archive it ranks #442 of 478.
That places it in the lower-scoring band of the archive (442 of 478 by score), typical of investigative-record style files where the report is paper-based rather than instrumented.
Anomalousness Index: 53/100
This is a reference document, not an encounter report, so the index has no encounter to measure here. The value above is the rubric's default for a document that describes no event, shown so every file in the archive can be ranked the same way. Not a probability of extraterrestrial origin - that number is not honestly computable from the released files and this tracker refuses to publish it.
🤖 AI-ASSISTED SCORING · methodology
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Bottom line on the score: the 53/100 is the rubric's default for a document that reports no encounter, so it is not a finding about any event and should not be compared with the scores of sighting reports. For the full per-axis weights and the rubric JSON, see /methodology.
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